My opinion on D&D 4E

[darkon_turas]

I would like to know where you dug up the D&D specific sales figures for each year.

[joela]

extremely informative. thanks, mr. goodman!

[GnomeBoy]

So... who is this 'Joe Goodman' guy?


...do we find out in 2017?

[AsmodeusLore]

Hello, everyone. I found this link from Greg Bilsland on Twitter and thought I would ring in on some thoughts of my own.

I agree with 90% of Joe's post. Mr. Goodman, an excellent look back at the history of the game we all know and love. The hobby itself is very healthy, and continuing to expand. We may not be in a new peak year, but we are by no means gasping our dying breaths. Not even close. Gaming in general is strong, and a very profitable business, even in these times of economic crisis.

The two points I question are your views on online/ digital products, and your thoughts on the Brick and Mortar stores.

Brick and Mortar stores may be an important aspect of the hobby, but I don't know that I would call them the lifeblood. I would call the players, the consumers really, the lifeblood of the industry. In the past, the stores were the best way for different players to come together, find other people with similar interests, and form a community. However, that is not necessarily true anymore. Today, the Internet allows for communities to sprout up in the blink of an eye. And gamers have taken advantage of that in a big way.

Today, gamers don't have to frequent a Hobby Store in order to find a group. They can use message boards, fan sites, social networking pages, even craigslist. And they can do all of this without the hobby store. However, Hobby Stores still have one major advantage that the internet can not yet compete with. It can create a physical location in a geographic proximity where a community of gamers can gather to enjoy their hobby together. I don't have your resources, or experience to support this theory, but I would suggest that the Brick and Mortar stores who are succeeding right now are those who are capitalizing on this. A store that participates in Worldwide Game Day, FreeRPG day, and other social events can reap the benefits of maintaining a physical location where the gaming hobby is fostered and gaming culture is cultivated. Those stores that ignore the threat of the Internet and don't recognize their own weaknesses and strengths in the new market are the ones who struggle and flounder, and eventually close down.

Now, looking at your comments on the online market, you say that it cannot compete. In the current state, you may be right. But there is a new generation of gamers coming up fast, and they are the ones who will push for the gaming industry to provide content online. This generation has two prior generations before it. The two preceding generations are resistant to the online world because its not the game they know. Its because of them that the online store cannot complete right now. But the new generation doesn't have that same preconceived notions of how the game should be played. They will want to utilize the tools available, thanks to digital media and distribution. And as they become the dominant force on the consumer side of the equation, you will see a rapid shift from the publisher side to meet that demand.

Mr. Goodman, thank you again for your thoughts and insight, and for continuing to support the hobby that I love with your company's products.

[Ramone]

Grognardia has linked to this thread and has some interesting viewpoints on the matter:

http://grognardia.blogspot.com/2009/06/ ... ctive.html

[jasonlotito]

Amazing stuff...I've never been a customer of Goodman Games, but after someone pointed this out to me, I had to register and comment. Thank you for the great insight into the industry. You may have earned a new customer simply via that post.

This applies to me as well. In fact, I hasten to say that it's a big reason I went out and actually picked up a few products I had been looking at, but not quite sure about. Blackdirge's Dungeon Denizens, a DCC, and Forgotten Heroes - yes, my first Goodman Games products! =)

[Ghost2020]

There is a sort of history book available.

The Role Playing Gamer's Bible.

http://www.amazon.com/Fantasy-Roleplayi ... 0967442907

It's an old one, I have the 1st edition and it's a delightful read. Terribly dated though. Ends around D&D 2nd ed's end (the black books).

Needs to be updated or replaced. It's time.

[dancross]

That was very interesting, and informative.

[Champion1204]

Hi Joe, thanks very much for your observations on the current state of 4e. Your bona fides are to be respected, however, I'm not certain I would hang my hat on the Fortune 50 credential. After all Citigroup, AIG, and GM are all part of that esteemed club, all with more than a few employees managing billion dollar accounts straight into the ground. Still, your success in the RPG industry and your pursuit of information within that industry offers you a unique perspective on its health.

I think that I can offer a similar unique perspective. I have no doubt that my business acumen rivals your own, but I have not used that success in the same way you have. Instead, I've used it to do two of my favorite things; travel and play games. I combine those pursuits by attending as many gaming conventions as I can each year. I go to at least one a month and normally 20 to 25 a year. I attend the big ones and the tiny ones. I attend many local conventions as well as some in Europe and the Pacific Rim.

At these conventions I not only play games, but I get the opportunity to talk with gamers and vendors of all strain and stripe. I haven't kept count of LGS, but I'd guess its in the 100+ mark as well. Its because of these conversations that I have to disagree with some of your assertions in your post. While I do agree that 4e has been selling well, from my perspective there seems to be a phenomena occurring. Players are purchasing the material, but not actually using it.

When 3e came out the convention players and gamemasters readily switched over. After only a year, it was common to see 75% of all the DnD events running 3e. Moreover, it was my overall impression that there was a general acceptance of the new system. With 4e it seems that conventions are lucky to be running 50%. Take a look through the DnD events at this years upcoming GenCon removing all those sponsored by companies and you'll find that a majority of the independent GMs are still running 3x. Furthermore, my overall impression is that players are digging in and taking sides, while the overall trend has been fewer independent 4e games. I simply do not believe that bodes well for the continued strength of 4e.

Your sales information seems to back that up, 4e just isn't doing as well as 3e did. Is that generational and there was just no way it could do as well? I've heard this theory in other businesses, but mostly by finance guys who just look at the statistics. I always like to dig in and find out why these spikes occur. While timing can play some part, from my research, the success of a product is almost always in direct relation to the talent producing it.

Its not often that a company can assemble a truly talented group of employees working on the same project and with the same direction. When they do though, they tend to "hit it out of the park". What happens after that is where the generational aspect sprouts. Companies rarely succeed in keeping that talent together, most often because they are lax in rewarding them properly, they believe its the process not the people, or the talent themselves want to move on.

"If you build it, they will come," kinda sums it up. So Joe, how about you build it? You and the rest of Goodman Games obviously have the talent. Step up to the plate, take a swing, and build a game that truly competes with DnD. And if you do need to check, you may find that the wind is blowing out.

[atanakar]

Very interesting thread! Thanks for sharing an insiders view.

I'm from the original generation of D&D players and I'm also a person that keeps up with the change in technology. There is one aspect
we cannot simple measure because we do not have the numbers. How many people have abandonned LSGs but have migrated to 4E? This is a crucial question. Many gamers have abandoned LSGs in favor of Amazon and the like. So how many 4E D&D groups are there out there that play regularly but don't show in the LSGs statistics OR at conventions? I've been a DM since 1980 and for my 4E campaign I held interviews and recruited my players on local discussion boards in my area. My D&D spending is now split 50/50 between LGS and Amazon. I suspect I'm not alone. I'm aware of at least two groups of old timers who stopped playing when 3E came out who have restarted to play D&D with 4E.

[/my two cents]

Atanakar

[finarvyn]

Great post. It really gets me thinking about gaming from the viewpoint of the publisher rather than the consumer.

I've been wanting to see a good history of our hobby and there's none compiled. If you have something akin to that, I'd love to read it (even if off-the-record). Our hobby needs to have its history chronicled before we lose all the founders.

I agree. I would definitely buy this.

I don't have any hard data to back up my opinion, just my own, admittedly anecdotal experience.

And of course this is the main problem with this kind of debate. Since I hang out with old school gamers, I tend to get a viewpoint biased in favor of old school games. If I knew more newcomers I would probably get exactly the opposite viewpoint.

I know that my son loves 4E. I call him a power gamer, but that's just the way he learned gaming from Playstation. I teach him a more old school approach and he'll gladly play my game, but given a choice he'd still rather play 4E.

I'd love to give 4E a real try, but it just seems so rules heavy. What I'd like is a "4E lite" rules set that gives a good intro to the rules for us old timers who don't handle new rules well.

[GnomeBoy]

....What I'd like is a "4E lite" rules set that gives a good intro to the rules for us old timers who don't handle new rules well.

Ah, a gamer after my own brain... Didn't they put out an 'Adventure Game' version in a box, or somesuch, as an introductory version for kids younger than the books are meant for...?

Oh, wait -- a quick Google search shows there is such a beast: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe ... aqi=g%3As2

[jeffb]

Fin- You can go to the WOTC D&D homepage and download the "Keep on the Shadowfell" adventure for free- this includes the "quick start" rules for 4E (which are nearly identical to the ones in the Starter set- I have that as well-bought it for my son for XMAS)

My opinion on 4E- as an old geezer who started with the LBBs, I LOVE IT. and love it far better than WOTC's previous effort at re-writing the game. I love the fresh approach of 4E (reminds me of B/X- i.e. not so heavily tied to AD&D/strict Gygaxian tropes and themes, so to speak), and love that they put so much effort into making it DM friendly. It sits right alongside my original D&D/AD&D items, my retroclones, and OSR items I love. I run 4E in a "oldschool" style (when I'm gaming, currenty on hiatus) and the Goodman Modules have made my life easier. Thanks Joe!

Whether it's selling great or not, I don't care, but it's nice to hear that it is

[blake1001]

Our dedicated music stores have completely disappeared as far as I can tell, LGS' are not far behind. Shopping on line is the way of the future.

While I accept that our particulary hobby's hold on retail space will always be tenuous, I don't really believe that on-line shopping is the wave of the future - or even that it's really all that new.

It's just mail order. Sears was doing mail order a hundred years ago. At least then, it really was an innovation. Only difference is, the order is quicker, it's virtualy instantaneous, on-line, instead of taking a few days to get there USPS. You still don't get to see/touch/test the actual item before you buy it. You still don't know how 'fly by night' the company you're ordering from may be. You still don't take it home the same day. Someone may still intercept your payment and use it to rip you off - it may even be the company you're sending it to.

Mail order never came close to replacing retail - convenient and anonymous as it may have been - and, speeded up mail order dressed up with 'dot-com' isn't going to either. It'll replace mail order, and be bigger than mail order ever was, but it won't replace retail.

JMHO.

And, more on-topic, my anecdotal evidence is that 4e is doing well. Our LGS that went whole-hot into 4e and has a room for gaming is prospering. Our LGS that branched into comics and mainstream boardgames and didn't much hitch it's wagon to 4e closed. Sample size of 2 doesn't mean anything, but there you go.

My 3e group transitioned to 4e, and wouldn't go back (with one lone dissenter), and another group I'm involved with (hardcore stortyteller types) that has hated every prior ed of D&D loves 4e for it's fast play and "cinematic feel."

[goodmangames]

For those who are interested, Kobold Quarterly interviewed me regarding this post. You can find it here:

http://www.koboldquarterly.com/k/article1277.php

[frankiben123]

wow....nice post.....
sales tracking software

[GnomeBoy]

Yeah, that's a very informative and interesting interview. Thanks, Joe.